Towards a pan-European coastal flood awareness system: Skill of extreme sea-level forecasts from the Copernicus Marine Service

European coasts are regularly exposed to severe storms that trigger extreme water-level conditions, leading coastal flooding and erosion. Early Warning Systems (EWS) important tools for the increased preparedness response against flood events, hence greatly reducing associated risks. With this objective, a proof-of-concept Coastal Flood Awareness System (ECFAS) was developed in framework of H2020 ECFAS project, which capitalizes on Copernicus products. In context, manuscript evaluates first time capability current Marine operational ocean models forecast water levels feed awareness applications at scale. A methodology is focus assessment storm-driven sea level events (EEs) from tide-gauge records. For detected EEs, event peak representation validated, impact lead evaluated. Results show satisfactory performance but general underprediction magnitudes 10% 18% surges across EEs. average, capable independently flagging 76% observed Forecasts limited up 4-day time, demonstrating suitability systems early warning applications. Finally, by separating surge tidal contributions extremes, potential sources prediction misfits discussed consequent recommendations evolution Service forecasting towards provided.